Some Days You Eat the Bear, Some Days the Bear Eats You

What is one to make of Russia’s attack on Georgia?

Georgia, the birth of Joseph Stalin, had once been a Soviet “republic” and had become a sovereign state after the collapse of the USSR. If one is to accept Russia’s rationale for intervening on behalf of South Ossetia, it is not okay for Georgia to want to territorially reconstitute South Ossetia (and another breakaway Georgian province, Abkhazia) back into its sovereignty; however, it is fair and right for Russia to violently bring Chechnya back into its fold?

Let’s first look at the Russian list of grievances. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union, the West, especially the U.S. under presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton, asserted that NATO would not expand eastwardly. Well, in the eyes of Russia, it was bad enough that former Warsaw Pact nations like Poland and Czech Republic joined NATO, but adding insult to injury, NATO wanted to expand and incorporate the Baltic nations and the Caucasus region, meaning Georgia.

Also, the fact that the United States wanted to place a missile defense system in some of the former Warsaw Pact nations merely increased Russia's sense that she felt encircled and disrespected.

Now, on the other side of the ledger is Georgia, led by President Mikheil Saakashvili . Once again, a former Soviet republic that has become a fledgling democratic republic, but with its own minority issues, noticeably in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. An “ally” of the United States, it sent troops to Iraq (and recalled them back under this current crisis). It has also gotten drunk on the rhetoric of being an “ally” of the United States, taking at face value that the U.S. would do something: come to that nation’s aid when attacked by Russia when Georgia sought to reassert its control over South Ossetia.

That must have been a rude awakening. For Vladimir Putin, now Russia premier and its de facto leader, had traveled to Beijing for the Olympics Games, and then traveled back to Russia to oversee the attack while the Leader of the Free World stayed in Bejing to watch a basketball game and hang out with volleyball players.

So far, all President Mikheil Saakashvili has gotten was a declaration from Sen. John McCain that “We are all Georgians,” and who recently said, without the slightest trace of irony, “In the 21st century, nations don’t invade other nations.”

Notwithstanding Russian aggression and cynicism, the most cynical thing about this international incident is how the U.S. encouraged Georgian behavior within the shadow of Russia. It’s been reported that the US had told the Georgians not to antagonize the Russians, but nation-states, like other nation-states, hear what they want to hear and believe likewise.

The United States knows that its option are limited, but it gave Georgians the belief that they could join NATO knowing full well that to do so would antagonize Russia, but believing that the bear would growl and turn away.

The United States’ behavior eerily recalls how it encouraged the Hungarians to revolt against the Soviets in 1956, yet did nothing when Hungarian freedom fighters did so. The U.S. also did this when it encouraged the Shia in southern Iraq to revolt against Saddam Hussein in the first Gulf War, but did nothing when he and his minions slaughtered them.

The Russians at this time have played a great game. It knows that the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and understands that America needs Russia more so than Russia needs the United States. For example, the United States will most certainly want Russia to use its influence with Iran to make sure that it does not pursue its nuclear ambition. Or, the U.S. would want Russia to back any sanctions that the U.S. would introduced against Iran at the U.N. Russia, if pushed by the United States on Georgia, will ask the U.S. to make a decision: Iran or Georgia? Given the price of oil and its natural gas reserves, Russian undoubtedly feels that it is in the driver seat.

However, the greatest irony in this sordid affair is that Russia’s action, despite her historical relationship with Georgia and her imperial past, has it roots in the United States’ policy of pre-emption, and the actuality of that policy is the present war in Iraq. Regime change has now become the international norm, a gift bequeath to Georgia by the United States.